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NextGen America’s third ‘Youth Vote Vibe Check’ shows positive movement on motivation to vote and offers insight on the potential electoral impacts of RBG’s passing
SAN FRANCISCO — New NextGen America polling of 18 to 34-year-olds in battleground states shows that Joe Biden holds a steady, wide lead among young people, as the undecided and minor-party share of the vote has declined. The data is based on 1,000 interviews of potential voters across the country conducted by Global Strategy Group from September 15 to 22 with a +/- 3.1% confidence interval.
Biden holds a 61% to 32% lead on Trump among young people who say they are definitely voting. He maintains a solid advantage in the head-to-head, as minor party and undecided voter numbers fall in the final stretch of the campaign. Young voters remain extremely motivated to vote in the 2020 election, with overall motivation to vote continuing to tick upward as the election draws nearer. The percentage of participants who rated themselves a 10 out of 10 in terms of motivation to vote has climbed by six points since July.
Data shows that the passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg could have serious implications with critical subgroups of the youth vote, particularly among voters who are less excited about Biden’s candidacy and center-right voters who are weighing their options. 91% of Democratic women agree that “Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death makes it even more important to vote for Biden and Democrats running for Senate,” compared to 57% of the overall sample.
“If you would have told me two weeks ago the stakes would be even higher for young people in this election, I wouldn’t have believed you,” said NextGen America Executive Director Ben Wessel. “After Justice Ginsburg’s passing, our rights to health care, marriage equality, and more are so clearly on the line. As Americans of all ages begin to cast their ballots, we are seeing the motivation of young people continue to rise.”
Familiarity with mail-in voting procedures and deadlines has also improved, and so has confidence that votes will be counted accurately across all methods. However, confidence for voting in-person early (82%) and voting on Election Day (88%) remains consistently higher than voting by mail (56%) among the key constituency of 18 to 34-year-olds.
In Senate races, the GOP remains underwater with young voters. Democratic Senate candidates are in a stronger position now (+29 Dem) than in July (+20), but Democratic Senate candidates have room to grow with young undecided voters.
Full results from the Youth Vote Vibe Check Tracking Poll series can be found at www.nextgenamerica.org/research.
About NextGen America
NextGen America is a multiracial coalition of young people, organized to take power by winning elections for progressive candidates. NextGen is uniquely suited to help millennials and Gen Z’ers seize power as an experienced yet nimble political organization that leads with authenticity and grit. Since 2013, NextGen America has registered over 1.3 million voters and contacted millions of young people with messages encouraging them to vote.
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