NextGen America

NextGen Climate to Track Voter Turnout in Key Youth-Dense Precincts

Group to release early vote turnout on Monday, updates throughout Election Day

SAN FRANCISCO—Today, NextGen Climate unveiled a list of youth-dense “Millennial Indicator Precincts” in battleground states that will provide key insights into millennial turnout. The precincts chosen by NextGen Climate are all majority-millennial precincts, making voter turnout in these precincts a good barometer for youth voter enthusiasm on Election Day. The site, nextgenclimate.org/turnout, will be updated with the latest turnout numbers for early voting on Monday evening and periodically throughout Election Day. Unlike exit polls, the Census’ Current Population Survey voting data, and other methods used to estimate voter turnout before the actual voter rolls are updated post-election, NextGen Climate’s Millennial Indicator Precincts will offer a real-time glimpse into the generation’s behavior in 2016 by comparing turnout to 2012 turnout in the same precincts.

As The Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement(CIRCLE), one of the nation’s premier research centers on youth civic engagement and voting, notes, “all estimates of youth turnout are subject to bias and error.” Furthermore, in recent years, turnout estimates from the exit poll have both over and under-estimated young voter turnout. By focusing on specific precincts that are almost completely comprised of voters under-35, this project will provide real-time insights into youth turnout and enthusiasm.

“For months, we have been on the ground, engaging millennial voters on and off campus on the issues that they care about—like climate change—and we know that young voters’ enthusiasm is very high,” said NextGen Climate Millennial Vote Program Director Ben Wessel. “By highlighting turnout at these millennial indicator precincts, we expect to show hard data that millennials are turning out at the same or higher levels compared to 2012. Millennials in battleground states overwhelmingly support Hillary Clinton, so high turnout is key to a Clinton victory.”

To effectively measure millennial voter turnout, NextGen Climate will track the returns at 12 precincts in 7 presidential and Senate battleground states across the country. NextGen Climate has been on the ground in these states working to educate, excite and turnout young voters—and this project will track the success of these efforts. The site will also provide a historical comparison of the 2012 turnout at each precinct to provide a baseline.

The millennial indicator precincts are below. Precinct maps and polling places will be available on nextgenclimate.org/turnout:

 

  • Reno, Washoe County, NV – Precinct 5027 (University of Nevada – Reno)
  • Las Vegas, Clark County, NV – Precinct 5584 (University of Nevada – Las Vegas)
  • Iowa City, Johnson County, IA – Precinct IC #05 (University of Iowa)
  • Ames, Story County, IA – Precinct Ames 4-3 (Iowa State University)
  • Urbana, Champaign County, IL – Precinct Cunningham 5 (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)
  • Athens, Athens County, OH – Precinct Athens 4-5 (Ohio University)
  • Bowling Green, Wood County, OH – Precinct BG 3-C (Bowling Green State University)
  • State College, Centre County, PA – Precinct 27-St College E-4 (Pennsylvania State University)
  • Pittsburgh, Allegheny County, PA – Precinct Pittsburgh 04-08 (University of Pittsburgh)
  • Greenville, Pitt County, NC – Precinct Greenville #7B (East Carolina University)
  • Chapel Hill, Orange County, NC – Precinct Mason Farm (University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill)
  • Durham, Strafford County, NH – Precinct Durham (University of New Hampshire)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NextGen Climate has been registering millennials to vote, educating them about where candidates stand on key issues, and encouraging them to turnout to vote in the largest campus program in this election on over 300 campuses in 13 key battleground states. The group is using fun and creative tactics like digital ads on Hulu and Tinder, interactive Buzzfeed content and puppies at the polls to turnout young voters to elect climate champions up and down the ballot.