NextGen America

Youth Vote Poll: Kamala Harris Surges Among Young Voters In Key States

NextGen America, a leading national organization engaging young people through voter education, registration, and mobilization, in partnership with Impact Research, recently conducted a poll of 18-35-year-olds in 6 key states. Read the full polling summary below:

Introduction

Understanding and mobilizing young voters is essential as the November 2024 General Election approaches. With a survey conducted across pivotal states—Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia—our polling data offers crucial insights into the attitudes and preferences of likely voters aged 18-35. This demographic holds immense potential to shape the electoral landscape. However, reaching young voters demands a strategic, consistent, multi-faceted approach encompassing in-person engagement, digital outreach, paid media, phone calls, texts, and innovative organizing tactics.

Young voters’ motivation to vote has significantly increased since March, primarily driven by Kamala Harris’ historic nomination. The average motivation score rose from 8.8 to 9.3 on a 1-10 scale, with a 10-point net increase in those “Extremely motivated” (68% to 78%). Among Democrats, 70% said Harris made them more motivated to vote. These shifts reveal that young voters are particularly inspired by the prospect of hope with Harris at the top of the ticket. 

The Harris campaign has captured young voters’ attention and enthusiasm, both online and on the ground. Her popularity among young voters is high, with a 51% favorability rating, starkly contrasting Trump’s 62% unfavorability. 

Harris has a strong lead among young voters in key battleground states. Harris leads Trump by +17 points in the multi-vote, including 3rd parties (53% Harris to 36% Trump, 10% 3rd-party and 2% undecided). Harris’ margin remains at +17 points in the two-way vote (57% Harris to 40% Trump, with 2% undecided). 

Harris has overwhelmingly consolidated youth “double haters” who disapprove of both Biden and Trump. Double haters, once a key persuasion target before Harris became the Democratic nominee, have consolidated around Harris, who is winning the group by +62 points (68% Harris to 6% Trump).  

Our polling also shows that regressive policies from MAGA extremists, such as abortion bans and government overreach, are highly unpopular among young voters. Additionally, 3 out of 4 young voters know what Project 2025 is, and it is incredibly unpopular, with 63% viewing it unfavorably and 58% very unfavorably.

NextGen America will leverage targeted messaging and education to maintain enthusiasm and drive mobilization efforts. This approach will focus on issues that are particularly relevant to young voters, including, but not limited to, abortion and the economy as top concerns across the board. We will also employ findings from our research that reveal that we make more significant gains in margins against Trump by highlighting the negatives about his policies and opinions. Our polling summary underscores the importance of understanding and engaging with young voters’ diverse perspectives and priorities. This understanding will be crucial in shaping the outcome of the upcoming election.

Methodology

  • In partnership with Impact Research, NextGen conducted a text-to-web survey of likely November 2024 General Election voters aged 18-35 in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
  • The sample includes N=1,500 voters with N=250 in each state.
  • Interviews were conducted between July 23-30, 2024.
  • The margin of error for the base sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence, and the margin of error for each state is +/- 6.2 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher.

Key Findings

Enthusiasm surges among young voters–they are extremely motivated to vote ahead of the presidential election.

Harris Has a Strong Lead Among Young Voters in Key States.

Young voters’ motivation to vote is substantially higher than it was in March, and Harris on the top of the ticket is directly increasing motivation among young voters.

  • On a 1-10 scale, the average motivation to vote increased from 8.8 in March to 9.3, with a net +10 point increase in voters being “Extremely motivated” (68% in March to 78% in this poll). Additionally, when asked if Harris made respondents feel more or less motivated to vote, 70% of Democrats responded that Harris made them more motivated to vote.

Motivation to vote has increased across the board and now matches what we typically see with older voters (80% or higher extremely motivated).

  • Typically, with 35+ voters we’d see this come in at 80% or higher extremely motivated.
  • We went from being a net +9 points ahead of Trump in the multi-vote (41% Biden to 32% Trump, with 20% 3rd party and 7% undecided) to ahead a net +17 points (53% Harris to 36% Trump, with 10% 3rd party and 2% undecided). 

As our March poll indicated was possible, the number of third party/Independent voters has halved, with room to fall further.

  • We saw in March that roughly half of third party/Independent voters were open to switching to one of the two-party candidates. Not only has this borne out – but we see that a similar half of the remaining third party/Independent voters are still open to jumping ship as well, meaning we could see the third party/Independent vote continue to get even smaller.

Harris is far more popular with young voters than Trump.

  • Harris has positive favorability with 51% favorability, in contrast with Trump’s 62% unfavorability.

Harris has overwhelmingly consolidated youth “double haters” who disapproved of both Biden and Trump.

  • Harris’ performance with voters unfavorable to both Biden and Trump improved by a net +42 points from March. In March, Biden was ahead by +20 among double haters in the multi-vote (29% Biden to 9% Trump, with 36% 3rd party and 18% undecided). Harris leads among this group by a net +62 points (68% Harris to 6% Trump, with 22% 3rd party and 4% undecided).

Harris performs very well with newly eligible voters, consolidating formerly 3rd party and undecided voters.

  • Harris is leading among newly eligible voters by a net +37 points (64% Harris to 27% Trump, with 7% 3rd party and 1% undecided), improving on Biden’s support by a net 33 points.

Age: Harris performs best with the youngest voters. Harris’ performance among the youngest youth subgroups (aged 18-24) is the inverse of Biden’s, who performed strongest among voters aged 30+.

  • Harris’ support among voters aged 18-24 is a net +24 points (58% Harris to 34% Trump, with 8% 3rd party and 1% undecided), which is a net +29 improvement over Biden’s performance with this group in March (30% Biden to 35% Trump, with 26% 3rd party and 9% undecided). 

Gender: Harris strongly outperforms Trump among young women.

  • Harris earns a net +36 margin among women (63% Harris to 27% Trump, with 8% 3rd party and 2% undecided). This improvement doubles Biden’s margin among young women in our previous poll. 

Race: Harris’ performs exceptionally well among voters of color, particularly among Black voters. Harris’ consolidation of Black voters is partially a result of consolidating Black voters who were formerly undecided in March.

  • Harris earns a net +34 support among voters of color (60% Harris to 26% Trump, with 12% 3rd party and 3% undecided), which is a net +21 points higher than Biden’s performance in March. 
  • Harris’ earns very high support among Black voters as well, with a net +53 margin among Black voters (72% Harris to 19% Trump, with 7% 3rd party and 2% undecided), which is a net +36 point improvement over Biden’s margin (net +17 points, 44% Biden to 27% Trump, with 11% 3rd party and 18% undecided).  
  • Harris also performs well among Hispanic/Latino voters, earning a net +17 margin (51% Harris to 34% Trump, with 12% 3rd party and 3% undecided), which is a double-digit increase over Biden’s margin.

Contact NextGen America

Thank you for your support of our work! If you have additional questions, reach out to the NextGen team: