Enthusiasm tracked in poll matches surging early vote turnout in youth-dense precincts monitored by NextGen America
SAN FRANCISCO, CA — A new poll from NextGen America and Global Strategy Group finds young adults are much more engaged and likely to vote ahead of the 2018 midterm elections than they were in 2014. Across six battleground states where NextGen has been actively working to register, motivate and turn out young voters (AZ, FL, IA, MI, NV, and WI) 37% of adults aged 18-35 state they are “definitely voting” or have already voted – compared to just 26% of young Americans who said they would “definitely vote” in 2014 and 23% of Americans 18-34 who actually did vote in 2014. Other key findings include:
- Young voters support Democrats by a large margin: Young people support a Democrat on the generic congressional ballot by 59% to 33%, a margin nearly twice as large as Clinton’s margin over Trump with young voters in 2016.
- Enthusiasm is stronger among young Americans in NextGen-targeted states: In the six NextGen-targeted states, 47 percent of young Democrats say they are more excited to vote this year than in past elections, compared to only 18 percent who say they are less excited than in past elections. For comparison, in three battleground states in which NextGen is not active (MO, NM, TN), young Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, but by a smaller margin — 39% to 20%.
- Trump is in trouble with young Americans: Sixty-two percent of young adults in the NextGen states have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump, despite the fact that he won five of the six states in 2016. Only 26 percent of adults aged 18-35 say they would vote for Donald Trump for re-election – significantly below his 2016 vote share in these states.
“These numbers are confirmation of what we’ve been seeing on the ground all year: young voters are fired up and are leading the resistance to Donald Trump and his Republican allies,” said NextGen America Executive Director Heather Hargreaves. “Young Americans are already turning out in huge numbers to vote early, and on Election Day, they will show up for progressive, inclusive values and make the difference in key races across the country.”
The high youth enthusiasm found in the poll matches the reported surge in early vote turnout among young people. NextGen America is tracking turnout in over 40 “Youth Vote Indicator Precincts,” and in six of those precincts, turnout has already far surpassed 2014 vote totals – two days before Election Day:
- At precincts near CSU-Fullerton (in CA-39) and UC-Irvine (in CA-45), young people have cast almost three times as many ballots during early vote than they did in the entire 2014 election (including both early vote and Election Day).
- At a University of Nevada at Reno precinct, twice as many votes have been cast so far this year compared to all of 2014. Similarly, the University of Nevada-Las Vegas (UNLV) precinct has already seen more votes this year than in all of 2014.
- At the University of Central Florida in Orlando, 150% more ballots have been cast than in 2014. In Gainesville, FL, 1144 young people have already cast their ballots at the University of Florida precinct, compared with 928 total votes in 2014.
All six of the above precincts went overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016, with the most eye-popping example being an 88%-7% split for Clinton in the UC-Irvine precinct. Young people turning out at higher levels than they have done in previous midterms in places where Democrats enjoy at least a 40-point advantage over their GOP counterparts.
Following the election of Donald Trump, NextGen America launched NextGen Rising to register, engage and mobilize young people between the ages of 18 and 35 across 11 battleground states. With a presence on 419 campuses, a $10.6 million digital program, over 14,000 volunteers, and 750 staff, NextGen Rising is the largest youth organizing program in American history.